A new World Bank report projects a sharp economic slowdown across the Middle East and North Africa, a direct result of the ongoing Gulf tensions' impact on global markets and regional economic stability. The institution published its latest economic update for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP) in April 2026, revealing a significant downgrade in growth forecasts that underscores the conflict's widespread economic toll. This revised outlook, which stands 2.4 percentage points below the World Bank Group’s January projections, quantifies the immediate financial consequences of the escalating geopolitical crisis.

Who Is Affected

The Gulf conflict's economic fallout directly impacts the Middle East, with secondary effects creating significant headwinds for economies as far as Southeast Europe. This reverberates across national economies, commercial sectors, and households.

The primary regions affected include:

  • Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries: According to a report from Gulf Business, the World Bank projects economic growth in the GCC to fall sharply to 1.3 percent in 2026. This represents a significant deceleration from the 4.4 percent growth recorded in 2025 and is a downward revision of 3.1 percentage points from the January forecast.
  • Broader MENAAP Region: The economic shock has weakened the entire region's 2026 outlook. The World Bank now expects growth in the MENAAP region to slow from 4.0 percent in 2025 to just 1.8 percent in 2026. This comprehensive downgrade reflects widespread disruption to trade, investment, and consumer confidence.
  • Southeast European Countries: The conflict's impact extends well beyond the immediate vicinity. The World Bank has cut its GDP growth outlook for all Southeast European countries covered in its report. According to SeeNews, the conflict has driven a surge in global oil prices, increasing costs for companies and households across the continent. For example, Serbia's economy is now expected to expand by only 2.7% in 2026, a 0.3 percentage point reduction from January's estimate.

Beyond national economies, specific industries face acute challenges. The global maritime and insurance sectors have been hit particularly hard by the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. A report from the Ethiopian Investment and Finance Authority detailed how war-risk premiums for oil tankers surged by approximately 1,000 percent. This pushed insurance costs for a single voyage by a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) from around $750,000 to nearly $9 million. Concurrently, tanker freight rates tripled, passing on immense costs throughout the global supply chain.